Democratic values are often linked to past experiences with democracy and authoritarianism and with present economic and social conditions. As the most developed economy in Latin America, Chile is a consolidated democracy, while Venezuela has experienced economic difficulties in recent years and its democratic institutions have been under strain. In comparing democratic values in both countries, we analyze how recent political and economic experiences in each country—traumatic in Venezuela and less so in Chile—affect those democratic values and account for political polarization. We use the LAPOP 2014 and 2016 polls in both countries for our comparison.
We assess the effect of political polarization on democratic values—particularly on support for democracy as the only legitimate form of government—in Venezuela and Chile, two countries that have experienced divergent democratic trajectories in the past two decades. Democracy has consolidated in Chile while Venezuela it has experienced democratic decay. Similarly, while politics in Chile have become less polarized, polarization in Venezuela has been on the rise. We study the consequences of changing levels of political polarization on democratic values in both countries in 2014-2017. We test three hypotheses: that support for democracy is a function of the quality of democracy in a country, that political polarization affects views on democracy, with those in favor of the government supporting democracy more strongly than those who oppose the government, and that regime legacies affect views on democracy, with those who opposed the polarizing regime supporting democracy more strongly than those in favor of the previous regime (Pinochet in Chile, Chávez in Venezuela). In what follows, we analyze the theory on determinants of democratic values, the consequences of polarization and regimes legacies. After specifying our hypotheses, we discuss our methodological approach of most different cases and then conduct our analyses using the LAPOP 2014 and 2016 surveys for Chile and Venezuela. We then discuss our results and the implications of our findings.
For our study, we use the he AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at www.LapopSurveys.org.). Polls were conducted in Chile and Venezuela in 2014.1 The poll in Chile was conducted between April 16 and May 22, 2014 and consisted of 1571 respondents. The poll in Venezuela was conducted between March 24 and April 26 and it included 1500 respondents. The questionnaire for both countries were almost identical.2 We also used the 2016 LAPOP Poll in both countries. The 2016 poll in Chile was conducted between March 17th and May 30th and it included 1625 respondents. In Venezuela, it was conducted between October 3rd, 2016 and January 28, 2017 with 1558 respondents. The questionnaire weres also almost identical.
LAPOP polls are widely used in the study of Latin American public opinion trends and political preferences (Carlin, Singer, and Zechmeister 2015, Booth and Seligson 2009). Studies on the evolution of public opinion in Chile have extensively made used of LAPOP polls (Luna et al. 2012, Luna, Zechmeister, and Seligson 2010, Luna 2008, Morales Quiroga 2008). Not surprisingly, as Venezuela has experienced social and political turmoil, studies using LAPOP polls to assess perceptions Venezuelans have of their government, politics and social conflict abound (Handlin 2013, Pérez 2013, Merolla and Zechmeister 2011, Hawkins et al. 2008, Lupu 2010, Camache 2012, 2002).
Because LAPOP polls use similar questionnaires in all the countries, the results lend themselves to comparative studies. Analyzing the level of support for democracy and the level of political polarization in Venezuela and Chile and comparing their determinants allows to test how the political conditions influence democratic values in countries that are undergoing very different political, economic and social trajectories.To assess the combined effect of the different variables on support for democracy, we ran OLS regression models.